Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 12 college football best bets:No. 2 Ohio State (-28.5; 44.5) vs. Northwestern
Saturday, 12: 00 p.m. ET (Wrigley Field)Before the big Top 5 showdown in Columbus vs. Indiana next week and “The Game” vs. Michigan, the Buckeyes travel to Chicago to face Northwestern who is off its bye week.
Do we expect Ohio State to be at its peak in a bit of a dead spot in the early window with these two big games on deck? I personally do not.
Northwestern is far from an offensive juggernaut only averaging 17.8 ppg (122nd nationally) and 268.1 ypg (131st nationally), and Ohio State will not give up much anyway since the Buckeyes rank No. 1 nationally in total defense.
However, Northwestern should be able to slow the tempo of the game at least and reduce drives. The Wildcats are also Top 20 nationally in both rushing defense and fourth down defense.
Furthermore, early forecasts indicate some windy conditions (it is the Windy City, after all) with upwards of 20 mph wind gusts.
Like most teams near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings, you are paying an extra tax on Ohio State here and likely too high of one.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +28.5
Arizona State at No. 16 Kansas State (-7.5; 51.5)
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ETArizona State has had one of the better turnarounds in college football this season, going from 3-9 to 7-2 in Kenny Dillingham’s second season. The Sun Devils have gone 6-1 in one-score games, including last week’s 35-31 victory over UCF. ASU was outgained by over 100 yards and scored two defensive touchdowns.
Granted, ASU was without RB Cam Skattebo last week, but he should be back here. However, Kansas State ranks eighth nationally in rushing defense and should be able to control the running game from both Skattebo and QB Sam Leavitt.
Kansas State is off a bye after an inexplicable loss as nearly two-touchdown favorites at Houston two weeks ago.
Both of these teams are still very much in the mix for the Big XII title game, but Kansas State looks primed for a big effort here, returning home to the “Little Apple,” where they have been a profitable home favorite (16-6 ATS) under Chris Klieman.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Kansas State -7.5
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia (-9.5; 47)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ETKirby Smart and Georgia certainly have to be smarting off a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss that put them one spot out of the College Football Playoff despite having victories over Clemson and at Texas.
The Bulldogs offense has sputtered a bit due to some offensive line injuries but mainly due to the play of QB Carson Beck, who has a 7-9 TD-INT ratio over the last five games.
Tennessee has had its own offensive problems of late. Last week was the first time the Vols scored more than 28 points in any SEC game with 33 vs. Mississippi State. Vols QB Nico Iamaleava sat out the second half due to a concussion, and Tennessee ended up running the ball 57 times out of 78 plays.
The Vols are 8-1 but only have the comeback win over Alabama to hang its hat on.
The “Mean Machine in the Red and Black” should get back on the tracks here with a decisive victory.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Georgia -9.5
No. 1 Oregon (-13.5; 51.5) at Wisconsin
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ETOregon is currently in position to be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff, but the pressure will continue to mount late in the season. This week is certainly no exception, with a tough trip to Madison and a loud Camp Randall Stadium crowd on Saturday night.
The Badgers are a disappointing 5-4 and have lost two straight (28-13 vs. Penn State and 42-10 at Iowa), but come in off a needed bye week to face Oregon, who have been road warriors under Dan Lanning. Lanning is 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on the road with Oregon,
Understandably, there is trepidation betting against Oregon, considering they have covered four of the last five games, including at Michigan two weeks ago when they tacked on a late touchdown with just 28 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
Nonetheless, Wisconsin did cover in a similar spot against Ohio State last year. and can still match Oregon up front, running the ball well enough to shorten the game and keep the Ducks’ quick offense off the field and out of rhythm.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Wisconsin +14 (-120)
Kansas at No. 6 BYU (-3; 56.5)
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ETBYU was taken to the limit last week but survived with a 22-21 victory at Holy War rival Utah. The Cougars were 1:35 away from taking their first loss of the season, but Utah was called for a defensive holding penalty as BYU was pinned on its own 9-yard line on a fourth & 10.
Once again, BYU won the turnover battle with a +3 mark. The Cougars are T-4 nationally with 21 takeaways.
Turnovers are just one thing that has been on BYU’s side. They are also 4-0 in one-score games, while this week’s opponent, Kansas, is 0-5 in one-score games. BYU is 9-0 and Kansas is 3-6, yet this line is only BYU -3?
Kansas built a 31-13 lead against Iowa State last week and weathered the comeback to win 45-36.
While BYU has one of the nation’s best pass defenses, they can struggle against the run, ranking 106th in EPA per rush. The Kansas offense can take advantage of that as they are 6th in EPA per rush.
The Cougars have been running on borrowed time for a few weeks now, and this week, their time is up.
Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Kansas +3
BEST OF THE REST
Arkansas +12.5 vs. Texas
Tulane/Navy UNDER 52
Air Force +3.5 vs. Oregon State
Old Dominion +3 (-120) vs. James Madison
New Mexico +11.5 vs. Washington State
